Apart from pursuing a multi-pronged strategy to tighten screws on state-sponsored terrorism and seeking global isolation for Islamabad, PM Modi must also build trade ties with China.
At Lucknow’s Aishbagh Ram Leela, believed to be staged for over 600 years, Prime Minister Narendra Modi was presented with Lord Vishnu’s Sudarshan Chakra, Lord Ram’s bow and arrow and Lord Hanuman’s Gada on Dussehra day. Within days of 19 Indian soldiers losing their lives in the attack on Uri Army camp by Pakistani terrorists on September 18, and India’s befitting reply through surgical strikes on the launch pads of Pakistani militants on September 29, an angry nation chose it fit to mark Dussehra celebrations with the broad theme of ‘Rising against Terrorism’.
Conventionally, prime ministers had chosen to stay in Delhi on Dussehra and been going to Ram Leela Maidan or Subhash Maidan for the celebrations. Modi broke away from this convention and choose to go to Lucknow’s ancient Ram Leela which, it is believed, was started in the 16th century by Goswami Tulsidas , the venerable author of Ramcharit Manas.
Generally, the internal summits which India hosts are organised in the national capital. As its Chair, India organised the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) Summit in Goa with Modi playing the perfect host with impeccable detailing and hospitality with a personal touch.
Strange it may sound; there was something common between Aishbagh’s Ram Leela and Goa’s BRICS Summit. If national anger against terrorism, specifically being sponsored by Pakistan, was visible in the form of Dussehra theme, a global concern was raised against the menace, as reflected in the Goa Declaration of the 8th BRICS Summit, endorsed by all heads of state and government, including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Goa Declaration may not have specifically named Pakistan, but it did talk about a “comprehensive approach” by all nations for “dismantling terrorist bases” and combating radicalisation, among other things. In fact, those who feel disappointed over the fact that Pakistan was not mentioned in the Goa Declaration in clear words, were expecting too much to happen just in one shot. The ground reality of China being a close ally of Pakistan has to be kept in mind, before raising expectations. It is only through sustained and calibrated efforts on all fronts that China can be made to realise its own interest by staying away from Islamabad.
But one of the key takeaways of the BRICS Summit was an encouraging outcome from the India-Russia bilateral summit, where President Putin seemed to be convinced by Prime Minister Modi’s gesture that traced the traditional mutual trust and confidence shared by the two strategic partners. “An old friend is better than two new friends”. One must read between the lines of this sentence which seeks to reassure Russia about India’s commitment to Moscow despite the evolving new strategic relationship with the US. On its part, the kind of defence and energy agreements worth several billions of dollars signed between India and Russia should also clear doubts over the recent joint military exercise by Russia with Pakistan.
However, senior military and diplomatic experts do feel that India must be watchful of the growing relationship between Russia and China and take advantage of the situation using Moscow’s goodwill towards New Delhi.
The all-encompassing India strategy to isolate Pakistan was clearly evident when almost all the South Asian nations stood by India and got the November SAARC Summit in Islamabad cancelled. And then, along with the BRICS Summit, came the declaration of the outcome document of the The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) Outreach Summit clearly indicting Pakistan, without really naming it. The document endorsed by heads of Bangladesh, India, Bhutan, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand (represented by Special Envoy) was more forthcoming against those sheltering terrorists.
“We condemn in the strongest terms the recent barbaric terror attacks in the region. We strongly believe that our fight against terrorism should not only seek to disrupt and eliminate terrorists, terror organisations and networks, but should also identify, hold accountable and take strong measures against States that encourage, support and finance terrorism, provide sanctuary to terrorists and terror groups, and falsely extol their virtues. There should be no glorification of terrorists as martyrs. We recognise the need for urgent measures to counter and prevent the spread of terrorism, violent extremism and radicalisation,” read the outcome document of the deliberations among the leaders of BIMSTEC.
As for the US, the White House and both Presidential candidates have been unsparing in targeting Pakistan as a haven of global terror.
The Uri attack and India’s response in the form surgical strike delivered with precision of surgeon, not armed with injectables but lethal armours, on September 29, 2016 would go down in the history as turning points. The turn-about was a three-sixty degree offensive defence comprising diplomatic carpet bombing delivered through the UN, BRICS, SAARC, big powers like the US, Russia and EU.
What about China? That is what matters and would be Modi’s principal challenge.
Enough analysis has been done on television debates and in the print media along with bombardment of social media posts and tweets on India’s response to attacks by terrorists trained and financed by the Pakistani establishment. That India’s response was a huge deviation from the past taking both Pakistani military and civilian government by surprise and making them at best a wounded lamb (they are nowhere tiger) has found nation-wide acclaim. Political skirmishes between the Congress, BJP and Aam Aadmi Party in the run-up to Assembly elections in politically important states like Punjab, Goa and Uttar Pradesh, are part of a vibrant democracy that we celebrate as the largest in the world.
Having shown grit, PM Modi and his core team of ministers and aides are certainly not expected to sit pretty, counting the gains from a professional and impeccable action by the Armed forces across the Line of Control, which the present dispensation does not want to treat as an international border. As expected, Team Modi must be working on ‘what next’ in terms of dealing with the wounded lamb which is not to be taken lightly as it is finding a sympathiser and an empathiser in China whose designs are certainly to see its hegemony from Tibet Plateau to Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean and not to forget the troublesome South China Sea.
Even as the Indian Army and internal security agencies gear up to thwart any fresh attack from terrorists or LoC violations, each and every covert and overt development between China and Pakistan has to be noticed, studied, analysed and dealt with in a professional and nononsense manner. Since Pakistan had remained in the thick of the geo-political theatre for several decades, used and befriended by major powers including the US, dealing with Islamabad has to be much more strategic and broad-based. The covert designs of the Pakistani Generals would go to any extent to stay relevant in a fast changing scenario where the new US President is expected to enhance pressure on them to shun their policy of terror as a state weapon in Afghanistan, Jammu and Kashmir and in other places in South Asia like Bangladesh. The Pakistani government is now pinning their hopes on the “allweather friend” China to help them in continuing to meddle in Kashmir while convincing Beijing how the two nations can corner India in a common strategic move.
As things stand today, the US is in the midst of a political transition, giving somewhat of an advantage to China which does not hide its ambitions to emerge as a counter to America on the world geo-political threatre. Besides, Russian strongman Putin would continue to remain one of the pre-dominant figures with his ambitions to see his country reemerge as one of the major powers in a bi-polar or tri-polar world.
While India finds itself quite close to the US in a new global strategic equation, New Delhi would be well advised to retain its old and time-tested ties with Russia which in turn seems to be getting closer to China as both of them see a common target in the form of the American allies. Thus, a fine and delicate balance has to be struck in India’s foreign policy initiative. The idea should be to find two of the three main powers – the US and Russia on our side. This would keep China on the alert and discourage Beijing to go too far in burning bridges with New Delhi.
PAK ISOLATION TO BE THEME
India’s foreign policy has surely been turned around to be more pro-active rather than reactive, especially with regard to dealing with Pakistan and China. Yet another interesting change in the policy is the tremendous emphasis being given on raising India’s economic standing, using different instruments including the contributions of a strong Indian diaspora who have struck a special chord with Modi. The workings of the Indian missions have understandably been re-aligned. Be it Group of 20 meeting , India-EU Summit, India-ASEAN Summit or any other big meeting, maximum milking is being done for accrual of advantage to India. This has enhanced India’s standing, which is now rightly being used to isolate Pakistan driving home the point how terrorism is the worst threat being faced by most of the nations and its epicentre lies in Pakistan which the Prime Minister described as the “mothership” of terrorism. Given the economic challenges being faced by China and its ambitions, Beijing would also not be able to always stick its neck out in favour of Pakistan at each of the international events where India must keep the pressure on.
FIRM HOLD ON HOME TURF
No nation could ever remain relevant on a global platform without first fixing its domestic issues. Even if Pakistan does not miss any opportunity to interfere in Kashmir, Prime Minister Modi is expected to reach out to the Kashmiri people making them realise where their interest lies. Initiatives like an IIM in Jammu and Kashmir would go a long way to restoring confidence of the Kashmiri people who would have also realised by now how PM Modi is not going to be soft on Pakistan. Lord Vishnu’s Sudarshan Chakra is reflective of his resolve to crush the terror from the sub-continent while Lord Ram’s bow and arrow symbolise the power to strike right at the target, known as ‘surgical strikes’ in modern days. Hanuman’s Gada is symbol of the national mood to beat the evil designs of those whose obsession is to keep the region on a boil.
As the message is driven home that the government means business and once the funding channels of mischief inside the Kashmir valley with links with Pakistan’s ISI and establishment-funded terror outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammad are snapped, things will fall in place in Kashmir. Now that the BJP has an alliance with Mehbooba Mufti’s Peoples Democratic Party, her hands must be strengthened and she be made an active partner in winning over the people who must be made to realise how their interests can never be served by Pakistan which is crushing any dissent in Pak-Occupied Kashmir and Balochistan.
As part of the overall strategy to corner Pakistan, Modi’s gambit on Balochistan, throwing India’s sympathy for the Balochs, has brought another ugly face of Pakistan before the international community which was being fed the Kashmiri theme all this while.
It is a new approach towards dealing with Pakistan and reflects the Prime Minister’s stamp of assertion, backed by an anger of 1.25 billion people who want the old order to be replaced by a confident India.