The US President-elect raised hopes by confirming his desire to work towards strengthening diplomatic and military ties with India.
As Donald J. Trump prepares to take oath as the 45th President of United States of America, there is a sense of hope amongst political and business circles in India that his presidency could augur well for the ties between two of the world’s biggest democracies. After all, while addressing a public gathering during his campaign, he had publicly declared how “there won’t be any relationship more important to us” than India.
Addressing the Indian diaspora at a Republican Hindu Coalition fundraiser, during his campaign, he went a step further and announced that “under a Trump administration we are going to become even better friends”. “In fact, I’ll take the word ‘even’ out because we are going to be best friends. There won’t be any relationship more important to us.” Labeling Prime Minister Narendra Modi a “great man”, the president-elect confirmed his desire to work towards strengthening diplomatic and military ties with India.
Trump’s campaign statements vis-àvis India offers a glimpse into what lies ahead in the Indo-US ties and that the change of guard in Washington could in fact strengthen ties. However, Indian administration remains anxious whether the United States and India would continue to share the bonhomie that Barack Obama and Modi displayed so routinely.
At least, Modi would hope the strategic and diplomatic relationship that he so worked hard for continues to flourish as it did during Obama’s tenure. Therefore, it came as no surprise when Modi, moments after Trump’s victory, called and congratulated the businessman turned politician and expressed hope that Indo-US relations will touch new heights under his leadership.
“Continuing to build on the bedrock of strong Indo-US relations. PM spoke just now to @realDonaldTrump to congratulate him on his election. PM conveyed his best wishes & the two leaders looked forward to working closely to take the #IndiaUS strategic partnership to a new height,” stated Vikas Swarup, spokesperson, Ministry of External Affairs, in a series of tweets.
Recently, at a dinner hosted by Lok Sabha Speaker Sumitra Mahajan, Modi informally shared his willingness to work with US president-elect and that the two shared “good relations”. The Prime Minister assured those present that the change of guard in the United States should not cause any major upheaval in the bilateral relations between the two nations.
What works in India’s favour is that Trump, who has been not so charitable in his words about other religions and ethnic groups, has been kind to India and Indians, especially Modi. Moreover, Trump’s open condemnation of Pakistan for harbouring terrorists will appeal to the Indian establishment raising hopes that US would abandon its traditional practice of putting India in the same bracket as Pakistan. The promise to fight Islamic terrorists could translate into increasing pressure on Pakistan and eventually a substantial cut in aid which works to India’s advantage. Experts believe any cut in the US aid would severely hurt Pakistan that continues to support cross border terrorism.
Trump’s intent to use India to check Pakistan too is being received with great admiration by the Indian establishment. Recently, when asked how he would want to deal with Pakistan if it becomes unstable, the President-elect said, “You have to get India involved. India’s the check to Pakistan. They have their own nukes and have a very powerful army.” India getting prominence over Pakistan could be yet another game changer in the Indo-US relations.
Without mincing any words, Trump has described Pakistan as probably the most dangerous nation in the world which must have been music to the ears of the Indian establishment. Amid this, speculations of Trump pulling out all aid from Pakistan, if it continues to harbour terrorists, is not being ruled out. However, experts believe such a move could have disastrous consequences on the regions’ stability and see a spike in bloodied confrontations between the two troubled neighbours.
Unlike the previous governments, a bold Indian government under Modi could see an escalation in military tensions. The recent surgical strikes by India on Pakistan were cases in point. Not scared of taking the military route, Modi has proved he is no longer wary of giving Pakistan a befitting reply if it continues to meddle in India’s affairs. For Modi, following the ahimsa dharma is no longer viable and it could appeal to someone like Trump who wants to act strong against terrorism.
In these series of developments, Trump’s decision to appoint South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, daughter of Sikh immigrants, as the US ambassador to United Nations is being yet another positive development in strengthening diplomatic relation between the two countries. Since most of the India-Pakistan rivalry transpires in the galleries of the United Nations, Haley’s appointment could also boost India’s chances of securing a permanent seat at the expanded Security Council.
India could also benefit substantially from Trump’s presidency as far as the military ties are concerned. Elaborating on it further, one of Trump’s senior most military advisers recently made a statement in which he claimed: “The Trump administration would attempt to strengthen the defence side where it shares so much common ground with India. At a time when India’s foreign policy is changing because of China and Pakistan, because of Islamic terrorism, we need to be there to greet them with open arms. I think, the Trump administration is ready to do that.”
Similarly, the trade ties between India and US are unlikely to take a hit despite Trump’s blowing hot and cold on the H-1B visas for highly skilled professionals. Throughout his campaign, Trump has maintained he is against visas and that his administration will scrutinise visa “abuses”. He also intends to restrict the flow of skilled workers into the US.
Indians account for 70 per cent of all the H1-B visas issued annually and just like his predecessors Trump would realise that it needs a substantial workforce from India to keep the Silicon Valley in business. The job crisis in US primarily revolves around the export of manufacturing jobs to China and not the Indian skills in software which Trump is likely to realise within first few months of his presidency. However, Indian software companies are likely to bear the brunt of Trump’s policies and will have to pay higher fees since India tops the list with the highest share of H1-B visas.
Similarly, the L1 visas, issued for high end science operations, of which India accounts for 30 per cent, are hard to be substituted by the domestic populace. So, India will more or less remain unaffected by Trump’s decision to go hard imposing such restrictions.
Moreover, Trump has business interests in India which are likely to add to the bonhomie between the two nations. A recent analysis of Trump’s financial disclosure by the Washington Post revealed 16 of his 111 international business deals were in India. This is highest for any country and Trump has plans to expand his business interests in India in the near future.
He has two super luxury apartment projects in Pune and and Mumbai with Panchshil Realty and Lodha Group respectively. In fact, recently, Trump met three of his Indian business partners, who are building the luxury apartment in Mumbai, at his office in Trump Tower in Washington. The three men were there to congratulate Trump for his victory and had the tongues wagging over how his business dealings are not likely to suffer once he assumes as President of US.
In these circumstances, it is unlikely that India’s bilateral ties with US are going to take a hit in the near future and much of it will depend whether Modi and Trump can forge a relationship that Modi had with his friend Obama.